Market Report

We’ve talked before about the relationship between interest rates and watch prices. A return to stability or slight upwards growth in watch prices might be a reaction to falling inflation and an expectation of rate reductions over the coming year, similar to how mortgage rates have started to fall over the last quarter.

This isn’t the first time that prices have appeared to stabilise over the past 24 months. Time will tell whether this marks a return to steady growth, but we’re expecting a boost around Watches & Wonders, where brands release a large number of new models in the same week.

Following the launch of the Subdial Auction Database, we’re digging deeper into trends around auction results. We look at the auction market’s performance compared to previous years, and examine the “Celebrity Premium” and what drives it.

The Sale Rate varies significantly by brand. Rolex and Audemars Piguet tracks to average with a Sale Rate of 78% in 2023, whilst Patek Philippe achieved 85% Sale Rate and FP Journe hit an astounding 97% Sale Rate (50% above average). This shows that even in a down market, there are always buyers for the most desirable watches. Virtually all of FP Journe’s watches are considered highly desirable, while Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and to a lesser extent Patek Philippe have a number of less popular lines. These three brands that make up the watch market's 'Holy Trinity' were also subject to the 2022 “hype cycle”, leading to a reduced appetite for the auction estimates as they continue to creep up.

Lots Over Estimate gives further insight into the health of the auction market. Auction houses often choose artificially low estimates to tempt potential bidders. The percentage of lots that sell for over the estimate (Lots Over Estimate) is in part affected by how bullish auction houses are when setting estimates; but generally they also give colour to the health of the market - when demand is high, the Lots Over Estimate measure is high, and when demand is low, fewer lots sell over the estimate.

In 2021 the proportion of Lots Over Estimate was 29.2% across all 9 auction houses. In 2022 it fell to 22.3% and in 2023 it continued a downward trend to 19.7%.

With the recent auctioning of Elton John's flamboyant watch collection, we dug into The Subdial Auction Database to understand just how significant the Celebrity Premium is - how much more are collectors willing to pay for a watch with celebrity provenance?

Celebrities love watches. Whether it's Eric Clapton's Patek piece uniques, Steve McQueen's Heuer Monaco, Buzz Aldrin's Speedmaster, Elvis Presley's multitude of Omegas, or Jackie Kennedy's Cartier Tank, celebrities love watches and collectors love watches that celebrities have loved. In the case of Paul Newman (Paul Newman Daytona) or John Mayer (John Mayer Daytona) celebrities can become so synonymous with a specific model that they come to unofficially name it.

Elton John's Paris-signed Cartier Crash realised £216,000, the second highest price achieved for this model on record, and against a Crash market with generally softening prices. The sale of Elton John's Crash is the first time the Paris-signed model has broken the £200,000 mark since the beginning of 2022 and clearly shows a celebrity premium on the lot.

The average price achieved for a Paris-signed Crash across all 2023 lots was c. £148,000. Comparing the Elton John collection sale to this suggests a Celebrity Premium of £68,000 (46%). Certainly significant, but perhaps not as much as you might expect.

How does that compare to premiums that other celebrities have achieved on their watch sales? The two Omega Seamasters worn by Daniel Craig as James Bond in No Time to Die achieved markedly higher Celebrity Premiums, with the Seamaster Aqua Terra 210.10.42.21.03.003 selling for 2,845% over market and the Seamaster Professional No Time to Die achieving a premium of 3,525%. Compared to this Elton's Crash seems like a steal.

The difference in premiums highlights the key to understanding Celebrity Premiums - it's about the celebrity's relationship with the watch. James Bond and Paul Newman are hugely influential figures in the watch world - the former as a result of Omega’s marketing and the latter becoming synonymous with collecting niches. Their relationship with their watches isn't incidental, it's part of their celebrity.

Elton John’s association with watches is limited to outlandish gem-set and design-forward timepieces, which generally do worse in the secondary market than sports watches. Other celebrities like Eric Clapton and John Wayne share similar outcomes when it comes to their non-unique watches, with a relatively low celebrity premium for both. Their celebrity status isn’t inherently connected to these watches - they might have worn them, but they weren’t nearly as strongly associated as Paul Newman or Steve McQueen were to their iconic namesake watches.

Even though Elton John’s Paris Crash sold for an impressive amount and bucked the declining trend for that particular market, it was actually one of the worst performers when it comes to Celebrity Premium. With the Spring auction season just around the corner, we’re sure to see more celebrities’ watches come to the auction block. While some are sure to be headline-grabbing, our analysis goes to show that there’s a chance to pick up a watch with incredible provenance for not a great deal more.

Signs of market stabilisation, plus a deep dive on auctions

State of the Auction Market

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