AUGUST IN REVIEW

Market Update

Summer break slows the market, but 2023 still looks to be a strong year.

August marked an unsurprisingly quiet month in the watch market. Prices were up a mere 0.25% in the Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index (GBP) ending the month at £27,791, highlighting the lack of any real movement across the market.


Other metrics remain similarly stable. Price uncertainty (the range of prices a watch is trading for in the market) was down 13% for the month. The average time on the market (an approximation of how long we’re seeing stock sit) increased by about 6%. Both of these changes follow on from a slower pace in the market.


This quiet month was further underscored by the top and bottom performers for the month both being Rolex Daytonas. The steel and gold Rolex ref. 116523 recovered from last month’s losses slightly with an increase of 3.2%. The all gold Rolex ref. 116508 was the bottom performer with a decrease of 3.7%. The spread between these two is smaller than in previous months, with a 6.9% difference compared to 7.6% last month, highlighting the increased stability in the market.

Rolex Daytona Cosmograph 116508

The Year So Far
As we get to the end of summer, it’s a good time to check in on the overall market and see how things are doing so far this year. So often when we talk about the market, we talk about watch prices - whether individual models are up or down. And while this is valuable, this is only part of the story. Here we’re going to focus on Sales Volume, or the total dollar value of watches traded.


This is a great view to take when trying to get a sense of the health of the overall watch market. It’s not as much an indicator of speculation (though increased speculation would of course affect it) as price can be, instead highlighting how many people are participating in the market and how financially invested they are.


In this metric the headline we’re seeing is clear: sales volume is 15% up on the previous year to date. Considering that prices have been so relatively stable, it shows the underlying strength in the watch market. It also shows the benefits of such stability. While massive swings in prices may see some people get incredible returns, such volatility scares many people out of the market entirely. Instead of a volatile speculative market, we’re moving into a strong and stable one.

Perpetual Calendar 3940

Nautilus 5711R-001

Calatrava 6007A-001

By Brand
If we break it down by brand, we see that as always the market continues to be dominated by Rolex, making up 38% of the secondary market so far this year. Its sales volumes also remain flat compared to the previous year.


Patek Philippe tells a far more interesting story. It’s been a recurring topic that Patek is under performing the rest of the market when it comes to price. When it comes to sales volume, however, it is a different story. Sales of Patek in the secondary market are up 62% over the year, a staggering amount and perhaps a reflection of a few things. The most likely factor is that it was one of the most volatile brands in terms of pricing across the previous year. Facing this new found stability, people are finding value and opportunity in Patek.

Boutique Brands


There’s a large chunk of this chart that we rarely talk about, but this way of looking at the data offers us an interesting opportunity to do so. We are, of course, talking about the “Other” category, which represents 25% of the transactions in the secondary market.


A handful of brands make up this category. The largest in terms of number of watches sold is Tudor, however the relatively low average sale price means the total value of transactions pales in comparison to Rolex or Omega. Tudor market volume is up 15% for the year so far.


This metric also offers an opportunity to look at more of the independent and boutique brands in watchmaking.
FP Journe is a standout in this group, with sales over double the previous year. Collectors are continuing to take notice of Journe’s extraordinary watchmaking and this market hasn’t experienced the same volatility as other brands.

FP Journe Chonometre Souverain and Elegante

To a lesser extent, Breguet has also had a good year so far with volumes up 30% compared to the same time last year.


Lower performing brands include Girard Perrigaux (-23%) and Franck Muller (-30%).


Overall changes in volume show a strong and stable market, with good growth coming out of the volatility of the past year. As we head into the end of the year we’ll be looking closely to see if that strength continues.

Breguet Classique Chronograph ref. 3237


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